Ransomware Groups Expected to Adapt Tactics and Business Models
Ransomware groups are constantly evolving their tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in response to the increasing cybersecurity measures implemented by organizations. Trend Micro’s latest research paper, titled The Near and Far Future of Ransomware Business Models, predicts 10 potential evolutions in how these threat actors operate.
Adoption of Zero-Day Vulnerabilities
One key evolution highlighted in the report is the increased use of zero-day vulnerabilities to gain initial access to targeted networks. Ransomware groups may invest in developing their own vulnerability research and exploitation teams to secure access to potential victims’ networks.
Furthermore, these groups may engage in agreements with exploit developers, offering exclusive access to newly discovered vulnerabilities in exchange for payment.
Focus on Cloud Infrastructure
Another potential evolution involves a shift towards targeting cloud infrastructure. Ransomware groups may adapt their business models to encrypt data stored in cloud environments, leading to the development of cloud-specific ransomware families tailored to exploit unique cloud services.
Monetization Strategies
In addition to these tactical evolutions, Trend Micro also predicts deeper changes in how ransomware groups monetize their activities. Some threat actors may align with governments or traditional organized crime groups, while others may explore alternative criminal business models such as stocks fraud, business email compromise (BEC), and cryptocurrency theft.
As law enforcement agencies improve their ability to track down ransomware operators and governments tighten regulations on cryptocurrencies, ransomware groups are expected to adapt and diversify their operations to maintain profitability.
Overall, the landscape of ransomware attacks is constantly evolving, and organizations must remain vigilant and proactive in their cybersecurity efforts to defend against these evolving threats.