Bitcoin Price Analysis for Q1 2025: Will BTC Rebound to $90,000 or Plunge to $70,000?
As the U.S. stock market faces turbulence due to President Donald Trump’s policies, the impact is also felt in the crypto space, with Bitcoin struggling under bearish pressure. The price dipped to $76,600, reflecting a lack of interest from traders. The trading volume has halved since failing to surpass $100,000, indicating a decline in trader activity.
Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Beginning?
Spot markets have been volatile, while futures markets provide insight into long-term price movements. Despite a drop in spot volume, futures volume remains high. However, both spot and futures volume have decreased, signaling trader disinterest. Additionally, future open interest has significantly dropped since late February.
Transaction counts have been steadily declining since November 2024, suggesting increased institutional involvement or larger transactions. This decrease in retail trading activity has led to reduced volatility, which may not be favorable for price action.
The Rise of Institutional Dominance
On-chain indicators point to a rise in institutional dominance through ETF holdings. Accumulation of ETFs typically boosts BTC value, while a decrease has a negative impact on price. Retail traders, who are often blamed during large liquidations, have seen their influence diminish.
What’s Next? Is BTC Headed for Fresh Lows?
Following rejection from the all-time high, Bitcoin has been forming lower highs and lows, indicating a lack of bullish dominance. While a bullish divergence is currently present, it may be short-lived as the Puell Multiple remains neutral. This indicator, based on Bitcoin miners and their revenue, suggests the market is in a strong consolidation phase.
After losing key support levels at $85,000 and $80,400, Bitcoin has completed a parabolic pullback, potentially leading to further declines. As a result, the price remains under bearish pressure, with uncertainty surrounding whether it will rebound to $90,000 or plunge to $70,000.
In conclusion, Bitcoin’s price outlook for Q1 2025 remains uncertain, with various indicators pointing to continued bearish sentiment. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels to navigate the volatile market conditions.