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Home»Analysis»Bitcoin recovers but market still on edge with short-term holders near breakeven
Analysis

Bitcoin recovers but market still on edge with short-term holders near breakeven

May 8, 2025No Comments3 Mins Read
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Bitcoin (BTC) has recently made a significant recovery, reaching nearly $98,000 and providing relief to many investors across the network. A recent report by Glassnode highlighted the improved market behavior, with increased capital inflows and positive investor sentiment. However, the report also cautioned that the current price structure remains vulnerable if key support levels fail.

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price to $97,900 has brought more than 3 million BTC back to a profitable state after a previous dip to around $74,000 in April. Despite this positive movement, the market is currently in a critical phase, waiting to see if Bitcoin can consolidate above key levels such as the 111-day moving average and the Short-Term Holder realized price.

Glassnode’s report also mentioned that Bitcoin’s realized cap has reached an all-time high of $889 billion, indicating a steady increase in capital inflows based on acquisition price. Additionally, realized profits have exceeded $1 billion per day, suggesting strong demand in the market.

Short-term holders (STHs) play a key role in the current market dynamics, with 83% of coins held at a loss attributed to this group. However, the stress levels among STHs have decreased, with the unrealized loss metric reverting to neutral territory. This shift has influenced spending behavior, with STHs now realizing gains rather than losses, indicating a return of confidence in the market.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be rebounding, as US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen over $4.6 billion in inflows in the last two weeks. This influx of capital suggests that institutional allocators are starting to rotate funds back into Bitcoin after a period of caution.

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Despite the positive market developments, volatility expectations in derivatives markets are declining. This subdued volatility regime could be a potential counter-indicator, especially given the market’s proximity to dense cost-basis clusters. The report emphasized that even small price fluctuations could have amplified effects on investor behavior, particularly among those who bought during the December–February consolidation range.

Overall, while the recent rally has improved network-wide profitability and market structure, Bitcoin’s position near critical support and resistance levels means further gains are not guaranteed. The market will be tested if Bitcoin fails to hold above its short-term cost basis and moving averages.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,844, up 2.64% over the past 24 hours. The total crypto market is valued at $2.99 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance currently at 64.45%. The market continues to show resilience and positive signs of recovery, but caution is advised in the face of potential volatility.

Bitcoin breakeven Edge holders market recovers shortterm
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