Bitcoin [BTC] has maintained a tight range between $100K and $110K amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. As the Israel-Iran war enters its sixth day, the cryptocurrency market is on edge, with uncertainty looming over the potential impact of U.S. intervention in the conflict.
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto trading desk, has raised concerns about the war’s repercussions on inflation and risk-on markets. They emphasized the double-tail risk faced by BTC from the ongoing conflict and the looming specter of inflation.
The trading firm warned that any disruption in the key global oil shipping corridor, the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a spike in oil prices and further strain global macro conditions. The possibility of U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran war has heightened market anxieties, with President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance adding to the tension.
Market analysts are closely monitoring how BTC will respond to these geopolitical developments. The correlation between BTC and traditional assets like stocks and gold is being scrutinized, with BTC currently exhibiting a stronger alignment with equities rather than serving as a risk-off hedge asset.
Amidst the uncertainty, option traders are leaning towards bullish bets in the near term, anticipating a rebound despite recent price fluctuations. However, the demand for bearish bets and hedging activity for end-of-year option expiry underscores the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market.
Looking ahead, the Fed’s rate decision and its potential impact on BTC, coupled with the evolving geopolitical landscape, will likely shape the cryptocurrency’s trajectory in the coming weeks. Despite its resilience in the face of ongoing conflicts, the potential fallout from the Israel-Iran war on inflation could pose challenges for risk-on markets and BTC in the longer term.
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