Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Losing Influence: A Shift in Market Dynamics
The traditional four-year cycle that once dominated Bitcoin price predictions is now facing challenges, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a recent post on X, he highlighted the evolving nature of the crypto market and the increasing involvement of institutional investors as key factors contributing to the diminishing impact of the cycle.
Why Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle is Losing Relevance
Hougan pointed out that while Bitcoin halvings previously triggered supply shocks and fueled bull markets, their influence is now diminishing. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment has changed, with interest rates no longer exerting the same downward pressure on crypto markets as before. Regulatory frameworks in the crypto industry are becoming clearer, leading to reduced volatility and collapse risks.
The Evolution of the Crypto Landscape
Hougan emphasized that the crypto landscape is evolving in a more strategic and long-term direction. The inflow of assets into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which began in 2024, is expected to continue over the next decade. Traditional financial institutions are also gradually offering crypto access to their clients, signaling a shift towards mainstream adoption.
Moreover, legislative support, such as the recent passage of the Genius Act, is accelerating Wall Street’s entry into the crypto space, paving the way for sustained capital inflows.
Obsolete Models and New Perspectives
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju echoed similar sentiments, retracting earlier bearish predictions based on the old cycle model. The traditional accumulation-distribution dynamic is no longer the primary driver of market behavior, as institutional investors and corporate treasuries are becoming dominant buyers, reshaping the market landscape.
Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
With these structural shifts challenging conventional wisdom about Bitcoin, Hougan suggested that the market is moving towards more consistent, long-term growth, away from boom-bust cycles. While short-term volatility may persist, 2026 is anticipated to be a year of strong performance driven by enduring adoption trends rather than cyclical market patterns.
As the crypto market continues to mature and institutional interest grows, the future of Bitcoin appears to be shaped by a new set of dynamics that transcend traditional cycle models.