Bloomberg Analysts Predict High Approval Chances for Crypto ETFs Despite SEC Delays
According to Bloomberg analysts, there is a strong likelihood of approval for key exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications currently under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, mounting delays from the SEC are pushing final decisions further into 2025.
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, analysts at Bloomberg, have recently provided insights into the approval probabilities of various ETFs awaiting SEC review. The projections indicate that ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and crypto Baskets/Indexes have the highest chances of approval in 2025, with each being assigned a 90% likelihood. The SEC’s favorable view of LTC and SOL as commodities, along with their connections to regulated futures markets, have contributed to these optimistic projections. These ETFs have already had their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, with final SEC deadlines ranging from July to October this year.
Ripple (XRP) has an 85% chance of approval, with the outcome likely dependent on how regulators classify it, especially after the recent announcement by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding XRP’s status as a regulated asset for futures markets.
Other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin (DOGE), Hedera (HBAR), Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) are also expected to have high approval chances, ranging from 75% to 80%.
“Would love to hear directly from Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening,” Balchunas wrote on X.
Despite the positive outlook for most ETF filings, the SEC has been issuing delays across the crypto ETF landscape. Recent postponements include decisions on applications for Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF, spot XRP ETF, Grayscale’s spot Hedera ETF, Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF, and Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF. These delays have pushed final rulings into the latter part of 2025, creating uncertainty for market participants.
It is evident that while the approval odds remain high, regulatory delays are impacting the timeline for the introduction of crypto ETFs into the market. Investors and industry stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments as they await the SEC’s final decisions on these crucial ETF applications.