Fidelity Digital Assets recently published a groundbreaking report that sheds light on a significant shift in the Bitcoin market. According to the report, more Bitcoin is now entering the category of “ancient supply” than is being mined for the first time in history. Ancient supply refers to coins that have remained untouched for 10 years or more, indicating long-term holding by investors.
As of June 8, an average of 566 BTC per day is crossing the 10-year threshold, surpassing the 450 BTC being issued daily post the 2024 halving. The report highlights that over 17% of all Bitcoin falls into the ancient supply category, with daily decreases observed in less than 3% of cases, showcasing the strong conviction of long-term holders.
Since January 1, 2019, the amount of Bitcoin in ancient supply has been steadily increasing. Currently, over 3.4 million BTC, valued at more than $360 billion, fall into this category, with approximately one-third believed to be owned by Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Despite the rising value of these coins, long-term holders are holding onto their investments, with ancient supply accounting for over 17% of all Bitcoin and continuing to grow. The report indicates that the number of coins entering ancient supply has consistently outpaced newly mined coins since the 2024 halving, leading to a tightening of Bitcoin’s liquid supply.
Looking ahead, Fidelity Digital Assets projects that ancient supply could represent 20% of total Bitcoin by 2028 and 25% by 2034. When including public companies holding at least 1,000 BTC, this figure could reach 30% by 2035. The growing institutional presence in the market is expected to further tighten supply and increase the influence of long-term holders over time.
The report also introduces the concept of the ancient supply HODL rate, a metric used to track the daily inflow of coins into the 10-year category adjusted for new issuance. This rate turned positive in April 2024 and has remained so, indicating a long-term supply shift in the Bitcoin market.
In conclusion, the increasing prominence of ancient supply in the Bitcoin market signals a growing trend of long-term holding and conviction among investors. This shift could have significant implications for market dynamics, scarcity, and the overall value of Bitcoin in the years to come.