Bitcoin has been on a remarkable journey, reaching new all-time highs and surpassing the $120,000 mark. However, the performance of leading Bitcoin treasury companies has not mirrored this success. Companies like (Micro)Strategy have seen their stock prices lag behind despite the surge in Bitcoin’s value. The question now arises: will these companies be able to bounce back, or have they missed their chance to shine?
In 2025, the landscape of Bitcoin treasury companies is quite impressive. A total of 79 public companies hold at least 100 BTC, totaling nearly a million Bitcoin valued at over $110 billion. What’s even more astonishing is that many of these companies only started accumulating Bitcoin in the past few years. Among these companies, twenty-three are actively using financing techniques to increase their BTC holdings, with a combined total of 723,000 BTC. (Micro)Strategy leads the pack with a massive allocation of close to 630,000 BTC.
The significant institutional accumulation of Bitcoin by these companies underscores the growing importance of the cryptocurrency on corporate balance sheets. However, investors have begun to question whether the exceptional stock performance of these companies can be sustained.
One key reason for the underperformance of Bitcoin treasury companies is the slowdown in accumulation. While companies like (Micro)Strategy made substantial purchases in the past, the pace of accumulation has noticeably decreased in recent times. This lack of continuous and significant accumulation has made investors less willing to pay a premium for shares.
Another factor impacting the stock prices of these companies is share dilution. (Micro)Strategy frequently issues new shares to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases, resulting in a significant increase in the diluted share count. While this strategy has helped amass large BTC reserves, it has also put a cap on share price appreciation.
The net asset value (NAV) premium, which investors pay for shares compared to their Bitcoin per-share value, has also fallen considerably. As more companies adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the NAV premium across the sector is expected to trend towards one.
Looking ahead, the future outlook for Bitcoin treasury companies remains somewhat uncertain. While they play a crucial role in locking up vast amounts of Bitcoin, factors like dilution, slowing accumulation, and increased competition have weighed on their stock prices. The landscape has become more mature and competitive, signaling that the days of easy outperformance may be behind us.
In conclusion, while the asymmetric opportunity of investing in Bitcoin treasury companies still exists, investors should manage their expectations. The market dynamics have shifted, and these companies may offer leveraged upside relative to Bitcoin in certain market phases. As always, conducting thorough research before making any investment decisions is crucial.