ARK Invest Raises 2030 Bitcoin Bull Case Price Target to $2.4 Million
ARK Invest has recently revised its long-term outlook for Bitcoin, projecting a bull case price target of approximately $2.4 million by 2030. This updated target reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 72% between December 31, 2024, and December 31, 2030. In comparison, ARK’s base and bear case estimates stand at $1.2 million (CAGR ~53%) and $500,000 (CAGR ~32%), respectively.
Key Factors Driving the Price Target
“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” notes the report, highlighting a projected penetration rate of 6.5% of the $200 trillion global market portfolio ex-gold by 2030. This allocation is nearly double the current percentage allocated to gold.
Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” is gaining recognition for its potential as a nimbler and more transparent store-of-value. The report predicts that digital gold alone could contribute more than a third to the bull case valuation, assuming Bitcoin captures 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap.
Emerging market demand is another significant factor driving the price target. Bitcoin’s ability to protect wealth from inflation and devaluation in developing economies could result in a 13.5% contribution to the $2.4 million valuation, assuming a 6% TAM penetration rate of emerging market monetary bases.
Additionally, growing adoption by nation-state treasuries, corporate cash reserves, and the expanding on-chain financial services ecosystem are expected to contribute to the increase in Bitcoin’s value. Conservative assumptions for on-chain services, with a 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), could further boost the price target.
Methodology and Analysis
In a supplemental analysis, ARK applied these assumptions to Bitcoin’s “active” supply, discounting long-held or lost coins. By adjusting the supply basis for liveliness, the bull case price target was revised from $1.5 million to $2.4 million.
The report concludes by highlighting that Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are often overlooked in valuation models today, suggesting that there may be additional upside potential beyond the already ambitious forecast.
For more detailed insights and information, you can access the full report here.