Bitcoin [BTC] has been facing a challenging time recently, with the price retesting its range-lows of $91k for the fourth time in 2025. This has led to a 16% decline from the record high of $109.5K that was reached in January. Despite these setbacks, some experts believe that there may be more trouble ahead for BTC.
Arthur Hayes, the Founder of BitMEX and CIO at crypto fund Maelstrom, has raised concerns about the future of BTC. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Hayes warned that BTC could potentially drop to $70K due to unattractive CME Futures ‘yield’. This decline in yield could prompt large funds to start unwinding their positions in BTC, leading to further downward pressure on the price.
Hayes pointed out that the current short-term U.S. treasuries were yielding 4.3%, while the BTC CME basis has been on a decline post-U.S. elections. This has made the ETH CME trade more attractive in comparison. K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde also noted that the CME BTC Futures basis had dropped to pre-bull market levels seen in late 2023, signaling a shift in sentiment towards BTC.
On the other hand, Chris Burniske, a partner at crypto VC Placeholder, believes that the current pullback is just a typical mid-bull run reset, rather than a signal of a cycle top. He compared the current situation to a similar pullback seen in 2021, stating that such resets are not uncommon during a bull market cycle.
From a fundamental perspective, BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) has been overheated, similar to the levels seen before the early 2024 local top. If history repeats itself, a cycle top could be reached if the MVRV ratio taps 3.
Despite these varying opinions, the market sentiment towards BTC remains uncertain. Bitfinex analysts have linked BTC’s woes to macroeconomic uncertainty, which has also affected the U.S. equity market. The recent sell-off in the S&P 500 has dampened risk appetite across the board, including in the crypto market.
As BTC continues to navigate through these challenges, it will be interesting to see how the market dynamics evolve in the coming weeks. Whether BTC can hold onto its support levels or if further downside pressure will push the price lower remains to be seen. Investors and traders will need to stay vigilant and adapt to the changing market conditions to navigate through this uncertain period in the crypto space. The Benefits of Yoga for Mind, Body, and Spirit
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