Bitcoin’s futures market is experiencing a shift in dynamics as whale activity declines, making way for retail traders to dominate the scene. This transition has raised concerns about bearish sentiment and the potential for Bitcoin to trade within a range, despite overall market optimism.
According to CryptoQuant analyst EgyHashX, the futures market is moving away from being driven by whales towards being more influenced by retail traders. This shift could have implications for the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin.
During Bitcoin’s recent rally from $100K to $120K, retail participation surged, overshadowing institutional players. This contrasts with the period between October 2024 and January 2025 when whales entered the market during Bitcoin’s sub-$90K accumulation phase.
The Futures Average Order Size chart reflects a decrease in large trades, indicating reduced whale activity. The Futures Volume Bubble Map also shows a more organic rally with healthy trading activity and less leverage, signaling a more stable climb but also suggesting a cautious sentiment among larger players.
The Bitcoin Futures Taker CVD reveals dominant selling activity, with taker sell orders surpassing buy orders. Despite Bitcoin’s price surge above $110K, sellers have maintained control since late July, casting doubt on the strength of the current uptrend.
Recent reports of whales dumping 100,000 BTC in the past month further support the shift towards a retail-led market. As Bitcoin trades around $112,952 at press time, technical indicators are turning bullish with the MACD histogram flipping green and the RSI recovering from oversold territory.
However, Bitcoin faces resistance at $114,800, which must be overcome to test higher levels. Support levels at $110,000 and $107,500 are crucial, as a drop below could lead to further corrections.
While the current outlook is positive, the decline in whale activity and futures market participation suggest that the continuation of a bullish trend will rely on new institutional demand. Without it, Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways in the near future.