Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for the past six days, with the price now hovering around $112,000. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has raised a red flag after spotting a concerning signal on Bitcoin’s chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below its 14-week moving average, a pattern that has historically preceded significant price drops of 24-26%. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could plummet from $113,000 to $95,000.
Ali Martinez, a well-known chart analyst, has highlighted a potential warning sign for Bitcoin. He notes that the last two times Bitcoin’s weekly RSI fell below its 14-period moving average, the price experienced substantial corrections. The RSI is a tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold. A drop below the 14 SMA typically indicates weakening buying pressure and a potential price decline.
This same signal has preceded two major pullbacks in Bitcoin’s recent history. In June 2024, Bitcoin experienced a 26% drop, followed by a 24% decline in January 2025. Now, in August 2025, the RSI is once again displaying a similar pattern. If Bitcoin follows the same trajectory, we could see the price slide from its current level of around $113,900 to nearly $95,000.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has also predicted a drop in Bitcoin’s price to $100,000. Hayes attributes this forecast to signs of a weakening U.S. economy, citing the disappointing July jobs report as a key factor. With only 73,000 new jobs added, well below the expected 110,000, Hayes believes global trends could lead to increased selling pressure. He identifies $100,000 as a critical psychological level supported by key indicators like the 200-day moving average, Fibonacci levels, and recent price zones.
Meanwhile, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have been experiencing outflows for five consecutive days. Major players such as Grayscale, Fidelity, and ARK Invest have all reported consistent withdrawals. This trend suggests waning institutional interest in Bitcoin, which could exacerbate a price decline if key levels are breached. Despite these bearish signals, some traders remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Bitcoin, viewing the current pullback as a healthy correction before a potential rally.
In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin appears uncertain, the cryptocurrency market remains dynamic and unpredictable. Traders and investors should stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate the volatility of digital assets effectively.