Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have recently shared their latest predictions for the approval odds of spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, with XRP facing the lowest probability.
According to their estimates, Litecoin (LTC) is currently leading the pack with a 90% chance of approval, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70%. On the other hand, XRP is trailing behind with a 65% probability of approval.
Balchunas emphasized that these odds have significantly improved compared to previous estimates, with Litecoin standing out with a high likelihood of approval. The recent acknowledgment of the 19b-4 forms for a Litecoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has further boosted its approval odds. Balchunas expressed confidence in the approval of LTC products, stating that they meet all necessary criteria set by the SEC.
The analysts also noted that both Litecoin and Dogecoin are likely to be considered commodities, given their similarities to Bitcoin in terms of proof-of-work consensus algorithm and absence of pre-sales. However, Solana and XRP have been labeled as securities by the SEC in separate lawsuits, impacting their ETF approval odds.
Looking ahead, the analysts suggested that Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force could potentially review the classification of XRP and SOL as securities by the end of 2025, potentially altering the ETF approval landscape. Seyffart mentioned that the SEC is expected to acknowledge filings related to XRP and DOGE ETFs in the near future.
In light of the growing demand for crypto investment products and the need for regulatory clarity, 2025 could witness significant developments in the approval of spot altcoin ETFs. Seyffart and Balchunas have already anticipated a surge in crypto ETFs this year, driven by a more favorable regulatory environment in the US.
As the industry continues to evolve, with new structures and products emerging, the approval of altcoin ETFs could mark a pivotal moment for institutional investors seeking exposure to the crypto market. Stay tuned for more updates on the regulatory landscape and the future of altcoin ETFs in 2025.