Ethena (ENA) has recently been the center of attention in the cryptocurrency market due to its significant price fluctuations and a major unlock event. The price of ENA surged by 1.89% from $0.4020 to $0.4096 before experiencing a drop to $0.3790 under selling pressure. This volatility in price has raised concerns among investors about potential market movements and stability.
The unlock event on the 5th of March 2025 saw Ethena releasing 2.07 billion ENA into circulation, which accounts for 39.17% of its total supply. Following this unlock, large investors transferred 125 million ENA, valued at $45 million, to popular exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and FalconX. Historically, similar unlock events have triggered price declines as the increased supply often leads to profit-taking by investors. The significant transfer of tokens to exchanges indicates that investors may be hedging or securing profits in anticipation of a market downturn.
Despite the dilution risk posed by the increased supply, the long-term stability of ENA will depend on whether demand can absorb the new tokens effectively. If selling pressure continues, ENA’s price may test lower levels, potentially dropping to $0.30. This pattern has been observed in previous altcoin unlocks where deposit surges have preceded price corrections.
In terms of market swings, ENA’s price volatility has been moderate, with the Volatility Index standing at 0.3769. The aggregated spot CVD showed a decline from -108.707M to -107.07M, indicating a bearish volume imbalance where sellers outnumber buyers. The downward trend in CVD suggests further downside risk for ENA’s price, discouraging traders from aggressive buying.
Looking at market sentiment, ENA’s CME Futures Open Interest surged to $120,000 on the 6th of March 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s rise to $65,000. This uptrend in open interest suggests increased leveraged exposure, closely tracking Bitcoin’s price movements around $60,000. If the open interest remains high, bullish sentiment could drive ENA towards $0.4500. However, a drop in open interest below $50,000 might trigger liquidations, potentially dragging prices down to $0.3800.
In conclusion, Ethena’s recent unlock event and the transfer of tokens to exchanges have introduced significant supply-side pressure, leading to price fluctuations and selling pressure. While ENA initially saw a price increase, a declining CVD indicates ongoing selling pressure that could impact its price in the near future. Traders and investors will need to closely monitor market trends and sentiment to navigate ENA’s price movements effectively.