Ethereum (ETH) is currently facing a critical juncture, with its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio dropping below the 160-day moving average. This metric has historically been a leading indicator of price corrections, as seen in the significant 40% decline in ETH price on 23 June 2024.
The recent scenario suggests that ETH could be under bearish pressure, leading traders to be cautious of potential volatility in the short term. However, there is a potential buffer for ETH, with a critical support range between $2,230 and $2,610. This zone, where approximately 11.99 million wallets hold 62.27 million ETH, could serve as a major accumulation area and act as a price floor in case of further declines.
If ETH tests this support level, it may bounce back due to strong buy interest or break through if selling pressure intensifies. Historically, Ethereum has shown resilience around such accumulation zones, making it crucial for traders to monitor this price range for potential bullish momentum.
Moreover, Ethereum has formed falling wedge patterns in 2021, 2024, and now in 2025, which historically indicate a bullish reversal. Falling wedges often precede significant price movements, hinting at a potential upside breakout once consolidation ends. Despite short-term bearish pressure, past behavior within these patterns suggests a possible rally in the future.
Looking ahead, ETH’s short-term outlook remains cautious due to the MVRV ratio, but much attention should be paid to how it interacts with key support levels. A sustained hold above $2,230–$2,610 could signal strength, while a break below may lead to further declines. However, the presence of a falling wedge pattern indicates a possible bullish reversal in the long run.
In conclusion, while short-term caution is warranted, long-term indicators suggest potential recovery and growth for Ethereum. The delicate balance between short-term risks and long-term optimism in ETH’s price trajectory indicates a possible bullish recovery. Traders should remain vigilant and monitor key support levels and patterns for potential buying opportunities and a bullish reversal in the future.