Fidelity Investments director of global macro Jurrien Timmer recently shared his belief that Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to surpass gold in market value, although he does not expect this to happen anytime soon. In a detailed social media post, Timmer compared the projected growth of gold and Bitcoin over time, noting that if gold continues to grow at its historical compound annual growth rate of 8% and Bitcoin follows a power law adoption curve or the internet’s growth model, the two assets could converge in the next 10 to 20 years.
Timmer emphasized that if Bitcoin grows at the rate suggested by these models, gold will likely appreciate faster than 8% per year, making it Bitcoin’s “quieter older sibling.” This prediction contrasts with more bullish forecasts from industry leaders like Galaxy and Strategy founder Michael Saylor.
The crypto market has recently experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin falling below $84,000 on March 28, marking a 33% decline against gold since its peak in December. Despite this price struggle, major institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock continue to show confidence in Bitcoin, with a combined $89 million invested in Bitcoin ETFs, particularly Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC).
While Timmer offered a cautious outlook, Michael Saylor presented a more ambitious forecast at the DC Blockchain Summit, predicting that Bitcoin’s market cap could reach $500 trillion as it absorbs value from traditional assets like gold and real estate. Saylor sees Bitcoin replacing outdated assets with a digital, decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative, likening the shift to historic changes in monetary systems.
As institutional interest in Bitcoin grows and long-term models project exponential adoption, the conversation is shifting towards when, rather than if, Bitcoin will catch up with gold. While Timmer remains cautious about the potential flippening, he acknowledges that gold’s steady and time-tested nature gives it an advantage in the current market landscape.