The second quarter of 2025 has been a positive one for Bitcoin, with a 30.2% increase in price since April 1. The market leader saw a 14.2% gain in April, followed by an 11.1% jump in May, and a further 2.6% rise in June. This rally pushed the price from $104,544 at the beginning of the month to around $107,370 today, briefly hitting new cycle highs near $107,000.
Crypto Market Today
1. Spot price drifts into Thursday night: The market has seen a slow slide towards $102,000, indicating that option sellers may be influencing the market.
2. Liquidity at $105,000: There is a gap in buy orders below this level, increasing the chances of a rapid drop in price.
3. Post-expiry snap-back: With $15 billion in hedges set to expire, a sudden spike in volatility, either up or down, is common.
Friday’s $15 Billion Options Expiry
This Friday, one of the largest expiries of the year is set to take place, with approximately $15.2 billion in BTC options settling. This accounts for 38% of the total $40 billion open interest. The “max-pain” level, where the highest number of contracts expire worthless, is at $102,000. Market makers who sell options often profit the most if Bitcoin lands at this price at expiry.
Sentiment and Volatility Tell a Mixed Story
While options data leans cautiously bullish, with a put/call ratio of 0.73 and implied volatility decreasing from 50% to 38%, expectations can shift quickly as contracts expire.
$105,000: The Line in the Sand
Technical traders are closely monitoring the $105,000 level, which has served as crucial support throughout June. Holding above this level could lead to a relief rally post-expiry, while breaking below it may trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders towards the $102,000 max-pain zone.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s impressive 30% gain in the quarter will face a significant test with Friday’s mega-expiry. Whether Bitcoin defends $105,000 or succumbs to max-pain gravity will likely set the tone for the summer ahead. Stay informed and prepared for potential market shifts. Stay ahead with breaking news, expert analysis, and real-time updates on the latest trends in Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi, NFTs, and more.