Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture this week, as market participants eagerly await a breakout above key resistance levels. Despite a recent dip in price, both the derivatives and spot markets are signaling a bullish sentiment, with BTC trading around $107,095 and showing a daily gain of almost 2%. The broader crypto market is also closely monitoring the situation, as liquidity zones below the current price could serve as traps for short sellers, while sustained momentum above $107k might trigger an altcoin rally.
One of the most significant indicators pointing towards a bullish scenario this week is the options market data. According to Glassnode, the 25 Delta Skew, a metric that measures the demand for call options compared to put options, has turned heavily bullish. The 1-week skew has jumped from -2.6% to +10.1%, while the 1-month skew has risen from -2.2% to +4.9%. This shift suggests that traders are accumulating short-dated call options, anticipating upward volatility. The divergence between the rising skew and stagnant spot prices indicates that the market is anticipating an imminent breakout that has not yet been factored into the price.
Historically, such skew dynamics have preceded sharp directional moves, with the current bias favoring an upside potential. The surge in skew, particularly for near-term expirations, reflects a high level of confidence in a bullish catalyst unfolding in the coming days.
Turning to the technical analysis, analyst Michael van de Poppe suggests that Bitcoin’s price structure indicates the possibility of a larger expansion if BTC manages to sustain above the $107,000 mark. The $106.6k to $107k range is identified as a critical area for triggering momentum. Should the liquidity build-up around $105.5k be breached, a move towards $103k is likely. The key support zones are located at $103k and below $100k, providing safety nets for potential downside moves.
In addition to technical factors, geopolitical stability, particularly in the Middle East, could play a role in boosting risk-on sentiment and catalyzing a breakout momentum. If bulls manage to clear the $107k resistance level, an upward move towards $108k could be in the cards, potentially paving the way for a surge towards $110.5k.
In conclusion, the current market conditions and indicators suggest a bullish outlook for Bitcoin this week, with key price levels to watch being the resistance zones at $107k to $108.9k and support zones at $105.5k and $103k. The 25 Delta Skew indicates a strong skew towards short-term upside, while a move below $100k would only occur if the support levels at $105.5k and $103k fail. Overall, the stage is set for a potential breakout in the near term, with market participants closely monitoring developments for trading opportunities.