Bitcoin (BTC) has recently hit a new all-time high at $111,965.80 on May 22, but despite this milestone, retail adoption and on-chain indicators suggest that speculative leverage has not overly stretched market conditions.
According to VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matt Sigel, data compiled from the App Store by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that crypto-platform downloads fell by 14% year-over-year in April. Specifically, downloads for platforms like Binance and Crypto.com dropped by 29% and 41%, respectively, with Coinbase seeing a 16% decline. Sigel suggests that individual investors may have either missed the rally or opted to participate through stocks, as seen in the flow towards equity proxies such as mining shares.
Additionally, Sigel shared a Google Trends chart indicating that searches for Bitcoin were only slightly above 25% on May 20, just before BTC reached its new all-time high. This decline in retail trading app downloads contrasts with the significant inflows into spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which reached $44.5 billion, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
The data suggests that the recent surge in Bitcoin prices has been primarily driven by institutional demand rather than broad retail participation. On-chain signals also support this view, with funding rates across major derivatives platforms rising but remaining below levels that preceded corrections in previous years.
CryptoQuant Korea community manager Crypto Dan noted in a report that futures open interest and liquidations are also below previous peaks, indicating limited use of leverage. On-chain analysis of coin age shows that the share of BTC changing hands within short periods has only slightly increased, while long-dormant coins continue to be held.
Whales in the market have been making fewer profit-taking transactions compared to previous tops, indicating a lack of significant selling pressure. The positive flows into US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs for eight consecutive sessions through May 21 further support the notion of institutional demand driving the current price action.
Overall, the steady bid and subdued retail activity suggest that there may be further room for price discovery if risk appetite among investors broadens. This indicates that despite reaching new highs, the market conditions for Bitcoin remain relatively stable and not overheated.