The year 2025 has seen Bitcoin experiencing a surge, sparking speculation about the possibility of a historic Bitcoin supercycle. Despite a rocky start to the year, the renewed momentum, positive sentiment, and bullish metrics have led analysts to ponder whether we are on the brink of a repeat of the 2017 Bitcoin bull run. This analysis delves into cycle comparisons, investor behavior, and trends among long-term holders to evaluate the likelihood of an explosive phase in the current cryptocurrency market cycle.
Comparing the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle to Previous Bull Runs
The recent surge in Bitcoin price has shifted expectations. According to the BTC Growth Since Cycle Low chart, Bitcoin’s trajectory closely resembles that of the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 cycles, despite facing macro challenges and drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin market cycles tend to peak around 1,100 days from their lows. With approximately 900 days into the current cycle, there is potential for several hundred more days of significant Bitcoin price growth. However, the question remains: do investor behaviors and market mechanics support the notion of a Bitcoin supercycle in 2025?
Bitcoin Investor Behavior: Reflections of the 2017 Bull Run
To gauge the psychology of cryptocurrency investors, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV-Z Score offers valuable insights. This advanced metric takes into account factors such as lost coins, illiquid supply, increasing ETF and institutional holdings, and evolving behaviors among long-term Bitcoin holders. In 2024, when the price of Bitcoin reached approximately $73,000, the MVRV-Z Score peaked at 3.39, a high level but not unprecedented. Subsequent retracements mirrored the mid-cycle consolidations observed in 2017. Notably, the 2017 cycle featured multiple high-score peaks before its final parabolic rally.
By utilizing the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, an analysis spanning multiple cycles reveals a remarkable 91.5% behavioral correlation with the 2013 double-peak cycle. With two significant tops already reached—one prior to the halving ($74k) and one following it ($100k+), a potential third all-time high could signify Bitcoin’s first triple-peak bull cycle, potentially indicative of a Bitcoin supercycle. The 2017 cycle demonstrates a 58.6% behavioral correlation, while the behavior of investors in 2021 is less similar, though the price action of Bitcoin correlates at around 75%.
Strong Confidence Among Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
The 1+ Year HODL Wave illustrates that the percentage of BTC that has remained untouched for a year or more continues to rise as prices increase—a rare trend in bull markets that reflects a robust conviction among long-term holders. Historically, sharp increases in the rate of change in the HODL wave signal significant bottoms, while sharp declines indicate tops. Currently, the metric is at a neutral inflection point, indicating that long-term Bitcoin investors anticipate significantly higher prices.
Bitcoin Supercycle or Further Consolidation?
The question looms: could Bitcoin mirror the euphoric parabolic rally of 2017? While that possibility exists, this cycle might pave a unique path, blending historical patterns with contemporary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Approaching a potential third major peak within this cycle—a first in Bitcoin’s history—hints at the prospect of a full Bitcoin supercycle melt-up. However, the outcome remains uncertain, but key metrics suggest that Bitcoin is far from reaching its peak. Tight supply, unwavering long-term holders, and increasing demand fueled by stablecoin growth, institutional investments in Bitcoin, and ETF inflows all point towards sustained growth in Bitcoin prices.
Conclusion: A $150k Bitcoin Rally on the Horizon?
While drawing parallels to the 2017 or 2013 cycles is tempting, it’s important to acknowledge that Bitcoin is no longer a peripheral asset. As a maturing market with institutional involvement, its behavior evolves. Nonetheless, the potential for explosive growth in Bitcoin remains. Historical correlations in Bitcoin cycles remain strong, investor behavior is positive, and technical indicators suggest room for further growth. Without significant signs of capitulation, profit-taking, or macro exhaustion, the path seems clear for continued expansion in Bitcoin prices. Whether this results in a rally to $150k or beyond, the 2025 Bitcoin bull run has the potential to make a mark in the history books.
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Disclaimer: This article serves as informational content only and should not be construed as financial advice. It is always recommended to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.