Bitcoin’s price has been on a rollercoaster ride, reaching an all-time high above $100,000 before entering a multi-week downtrend. This correction has sparked speculation about whether Bitcoin is still following the 2017 bull cycle. Let’s dive into the data to analyze how closely Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with previous bull markets and what we can expect next for the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price Trends in 2025 vs. 2017 Bull Cycle
Bitcoin’s price trajectory since the cycle lows set during the 2022 bear market has shown similarities to the 2015–2017 cycle, which saw Bitcoin soar to $20,000 in December 2017. However, the recent downtrend marks a deviation from the 2017 pattern. Instead of rallying to new all-time highs, Bitcoin has been moving sideways and declining, indicating a potential weakening of the correlation.
Despite this recent divergence, the historical correlation between Bitcoin’s current cycle and the 2017 cycle remains high. The correlation was around 92% earlier this year, but the recent price divergence has slightly reduced it to 91%, still a significant figure in financial markets.
How Bitcoin Market Behavior Echoes 2017 Cycle Patterns
The MVRV Ratio, a key indicator of investor behavior, measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average cost basis of all BTC held on the network. The recent decline in the MVRV ratio reflects Bitcoin’s correction from all-time highs, but it remains structurally similar to the 2017 cycle, with an early bull market rally followed by sharp corrections, maintaining an 80% correlation.
Bitcoin Price Correlation with 2017 Bull Cycle Data
One possible explanation for the recent divergence could be the influence of data lag. Changes in liquidity, such as Global Liquidity, often take around 2 months to reflect in Bitcoin’s price action. By applying a 30-day lag to Bitcoin’s price action relative to the 2017 cycle, the correlation increases to 93%, suggesting a potential major rally on the horizon.
What 2017 Bull Cycle Signals Mean for Bitcoin Price Today
While history may not repeat itself exactly, Bitcoin’s current cycle shares similarities with the 2017 bull run in terms of market psychology. If Bitcoin resumes its correlation with the lagging 2017 cycle, we could see a recovery from the current correction and a possible sharp upward move.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price action may deviate from historical patterns at times, the underlying market dynamics suggest that a significant rally could be on the horizon. As always, it’s essential to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when making investment decisions in the volatile cryptocurrency market.