Pi Network (PI) has been experiencing a notable decline in its price recently, stirring up concerns among both investors and developers. The token has been facing increased volatility, attributed to structural changes in its supply dynamics. As Pi Network progresses through crucial stages of its ecosystem development, various network-level events and on-chain activities are significantly impacting its market performance. These changes highlight the ongoing challenge of balancing circulating supply and demand within a network that is still evolving towards its open mainnet and full token utility.
At present, the PI price hovers around $0.4561 and shows a consistent downward trend. The question arises: what factors are contributing to this downward pressure on PI price?
One major factor driving the decline is the substantial token unlock currently underway. Between June 28 and July 15, 2025, an overwhelming 337 million PI tokens are set to be released into the market. July 4 marked the highest daily release, with over 19 million PI tokens, approximately $10 million worth. This influx of newly unlocked tokens has prompted many holders to sell, resulting in an oversupply situation and pushing the price downwards. This unlock event is the largest until 2027, making it a crucial period for Pi holders.
Furthermore, on-chain data indicates a concerning trend of large wallets, potentially linked to the Pi Core Team, transferring millions of PI to exchanges like OKX and Gate.io. While the reasons behind these movements remain unclear, they suggest possible insider selling activities, triggering doubts and speculative exits among retail holders. Exchange inflows have also surged, confirming an increase in sell-side liquidity. Coupled with the ongoing token unlock, this influx of supply is likely to keep the price constrained within a certain range.
The sentiment within the Pi community has taken a hit as well. Despite promises over the years, Pi remains unlisted on major exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase, limiting accessibility and investor confidence. Hype events like Pi2Day have not yielded the expected price rallies, and real-world use cases are still in early stages. Technical indicators have turned bearish, hinting at the possibility of further downside movement.
Looking at the historical chart of PI, a rebound in price does not seem imminent. The chart depicts PI price trapped within a falling wedge pattern, nearing its apex. The Bollinger bands are running parallel, signaling reduced volatility, while the RSI has bottomed out, suggesting a potential reversal in the near future. However, the weak momentum indicates that if the price breaks lower, it may test support levels around $0.35. The bearish trend is likely to persist until the PI price clears the resistance at $0.47.
In conclusion, the current market conditions and dynamics surrounding Pi Network indicate a challenging environment for price recovery. As the network continues to evolve and navigate through critical phases, maintaining a balance between supply and demand remains a key focus for stakeholders. Investors and developers will closely monitor upcoming developments to gauge the trajectory of PI price movement in the coming days.