Stablecoin rails are poised to challenge traditional cross-border payment networks by 2026, with monthly on-chain dollar settlements already reaching trillions of dollars. According to RWA.xyz’s live dashboard, stablecoins processed around $3.3 trillion in July, with approximately 39.7 million active monthly addresses and a total stablecoin value of $259 billion.
There are three key factors driving the potential crossover. Firstly, payment access is becoming more widespread. Stripe has re-introduced crypto payments, starting with USDC on Solana, Ethereum, and Polygon, allowing stablecoins to be used in standard checkout processes. Additionally, Coinbase and PayPal have eliminated fees on PYUSD conversions, enabling merchants to settle transactions in stablecoins instead of traditional card rails.
Secondly, transaction costs on Ethereum Layer 2 solutions have decreased significantly, making off-ramp conversions more affordable. This is due to advancements like Dencun and the Pectra blob-capacity increase, which have lowered median rollup transaction costs to just a few cents. Real-time fee trackers show that major Layer 2 solutions now offer sub-dime transaction fees.
Thirdly, tokenized Treasury bills are offering attractive yields for treasury and fintech flows, further incentivizing the adoption of stablecoins. Platforms like RWA.xyz’s treasuries panel show significant on-chain T-bill value, with BlackRock’s BUIDL fund surpassing $3 billion in assets under management.
When comparing stablecoin payments to traditional networks like Visa and SWIFT, a scenario-based approach is more appropriate for predicting the future. By analyzing observable drivers, a model suggests that stablecoin payments could reach a range of $3 trillion to $5 trillion in settlements by 2026.
Factors such as the growth of active addresses, average transaction sizes, off-ramp penetration, and transaction costs on Layer 2 solutions all play a role in determining the potential volume of stablecoin payments. By excluding internal exchange churn and factoring in a cash-out percentage, the model estimates that annual end-user settlements could surpass $3 trillion in a base case scenario.
Additionally, regulatory developments like the U.S. GENIUS Act, which mandates fiat-backed reserves and monthly disclosures for stablecoins, enhance the credibility of dollar-stablecoins and increase demand for short-dated Treasuries. This, coupled with ongoing improvements in transaction fees and increased merchant acceptance, paves the way for stablecoins to compete in specific corridors where speed, cost, and 24/7 settlement are crucial factors.
In conclusion, the potential crossover to stablecoin-based payments in 2026 is not about displacing existing networks but rather about leveraging the unique advantages of stablecoins in specific use cases. With ample on-chain volumes, reduced fees, and regulatory clarity driving adoption, stablecoins are poised to revolutionize cross-border payments in the near future.