Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to have an incredibly strong second half of 2025, with the potential for its best performance ever. This forecast comes from Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, who points to several key factors driving this bullish outlook.
In a recent research note, Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin will benefit from record inflows into ETFs, as well as increased corporate treasury purchases. He expects these trends to continue in the third and fourth quarters, surpassing the levels seen in the second quarter. Standard Chartered maintains its earlier prediction of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of the year, with a price projection of $135,000 for the third quarter.
One of the factors contributing to Bitcoin’s positive outlook is the growing interest in ETFs and corporate treasury investments. Despite initial doubts, the market is starting to realize that Bitcoin’s price patterns post-halving remain intact, leading to increased confidence in the cryptocurrency.
Additionally, Kendrick points to policy risks facing the Federal Reserve, with the potential for President Donald Trump to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to a shift towards looser monetary policy, further bolstering Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value.
Furthermore, the recent approval of the GENIUS Act in the US is expected to provide regulatory clarity and support broader adoption of cryptocurrencies. Kendrick also highlights the potential for increased sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, which would further strengthen long-term demand and price stability.
Addressing concerns about Bitcoin’s halving cycle, Kendrick notes that the dynamic has shifted due to the influx of ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying. While previous cycles have seen price declines around 18 months after a halving, he believes that these new demand factors will help Bitcoin avoid a similar fate this time around.
As we approach late September and early October, Kendrick suggests that Bitcoin’s price may experience volatility as markets focus on historical patterns. However, he remains confident that the uptrend will resume by year-end, driven by the structural demand factors at play.
In conclusion, Kendrick advises investors to “buckle up” as Bitcoin continues to defy expectations and chart its own course beyond traditional halving cycle behavior. With a combination of institutional interest, regulatory developments, and sovereign adoption, Bitcoin’s future looks brighter than ever.