Bitcoin analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino is sounding the alarm for investors not to draw parallels between the current Bitcoin cycle and the historic 2017 bull run. Severino points to a crucial indicator on the monthly chart that paints a different picture than what many are hoping for. As Bitcoin hovers between $81,000 and $84,500, the buying trend indicates a potential peak.
Severino’s warning stems from the stochastic oscillator, a momentum indicator used to determine if a cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold relative to recent price ranges. When applied to Bitcoin on the monthly candlestick timeframe, the oscillator provides a long-term view of momentum trends dating back to 2013. Severino’s chart showcases major bull and bear cycles, highlighting recurring patterns.
Contrary to what some market participants believe, the current movement of the 1-month Bitcoin stochastic oscillator is not akin to the levels seen in 2017. Despite sitting around 60, the same level as the 2017 correction, Severino argues that this level resembles the beginning of the 2018 bear market more closely. During this phase, Bitcoin experienced a significant 49% drop within a month.
The technical analyst suggests that any similarities to the 2017 bull market could mislead investors into a bearish phase. Recent price action has shown Bitcoin struggling to attract buyers, with short-term holders pausing their buying activity due to prolonged consolidation. The realized price model indicates that the correction may continue for weeks.
Despite market turmoil caused by US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, Bitcoin managed to hold above $80,000 and rebound above $83,000. This resilience, amidst volatility in both crypto and traditional markets, signals a potential decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional financial indices.
As Bitcoin currently trades at $83,693, investors are advised to exercise caution and not rely solely on past trends to predict future outcomes. Severino’s analysis serves as a reminder that the cryptocurrency market is dynamic and subject to rapid shifts, urging investors to stay vigilant and informed.
With Bitcoin’s future direction uncertain, staying informed and monitoring market trends is crucial for navigating the volatile cryptocurrency landscape. As developments unfold, investors must remain adaptable and prepared for all scenarios in the ever-evolving crypto market.