Solana’s recent price rally following the announcement of the first-ever Solana ETF with staking capabilities set to launch on July 2, 2025, has generated significant interest among investors. The token experienced a brief surge of almost 6%, reaching an intraday high of $158.30 before retracing to around $152.60. Despite the pullback, Solana’s market capitalization exceeds $81.6 billion, representing a 44% increase from its year-to-date low.
The excitement surrounding the upcoming REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, which will offer on-chain staking rewards alongside spot price exposure, drove the initial rally. This ETF is a groundbreaking product in the U.S. market, as it incorporates staking features that were previously limited due to regulatory constraints. However, investor enthusiasm waned as concerns arose about the potential success of the new Solana ETF.
One key factor contributing to investor skepticism is the modest size of Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL), which manages only $75 million in assets compared to Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) with $10 billion in assets before the launch of the Ethereum ETF. Derivatives data also indicates weakening momentum for Solana, with long positions outweighing shorts in volume but bears reaping profits.
The decline in the market cap of stablecoins on the Solana network from $13 billion to $10.5 billion suggests reduced on-chain liquidity and transactional demand within the ecosystem. Additionally, despite the popularity of Solana memecoins, the network’s revenue has plummeted by over 90% since January, further impacting its performance.
In terms of price analysis, Solana is approaching a descending trendline on the 1-day/USDT chart, indicating a potential trend reversal if it falls below this level. The price has also slipped below the 50-day simple moving average, signaling weakening short-term strength. The Relative Strength Index has dropped back to 51, indicating diminished buying pressure.
Technical indicators suggest that SOL may retest support at $143.10 and potentially decline further to $126.48, its local low from the previous month. Additionally, over $585 million worth of SOL is expected to be unstaked in the coming months, potentially increasing selling pressure. However, strong inflows into the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF on its launch day could override technical weakness and drive renewed accumulation.
It’s important to note that this article does not constitute investment advice and is intended for educational purposes only. Investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.