Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a tear lately, reaching new all-time highs and surpassing previous peaks. With the price of BTC rising above $107,000 on Monday, the post-U.S. election gain has exceeded 50%. This surge in price comes in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will be building a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, similar to its oil reserve. Analysts are predicting that this winning streak will continue into next year, with price targets ranging from $150K to $200K by the end of the following year.
Despite the bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, the options market is showing a more cautious outlook for the short term. Data from Deribit indicates that traders are not as eager to chase the rally as they have been in the past. The 25-delta risk reversal for options expiring on Friday is currently negative, suggesting that there is a relative richness of put options that provide protection against price drops. This contrasts with the trend seen in recent weeks, where traders aggressively pursued new price peaks, driving short-term and long-term call biases to high levels.
The latest block trades on Deribit, tracked by Amberdata, also reflect a bearish lean in the market. The top trade today was a short position in the Dec. 27 expiry call at the $108,000 strike, followed by long positions in the $100,000 strike puts expiring on Dec. 27 and Jan. 3. This cautious sentiment may be due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will signal fewer or slower rate hikes for 2025, which could lead to a strengthening dollar and a correction in riskier assets.
Overall, while Bitcoin continues to make headlines with its price surges, traders in the options market are taking a more measured approach. The cautious sentiment could be a sign that sophisticated traders are preparing for a potential correction in the near future. As the market continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how traders navigate the volatility and uncertainty in the coming weeks. Recent studies have shown that incorporating mindfulness practices into our daily routines can have a profound impact on our mental and emotional well-being. Mindfulness, which involves paying attention to the present moment without judgment, has been found to reduce stress, anxiety, and depression, while also improving focus, clarity, and overall happiness.
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