Stocks and digital assets are currently at near record levels, with the S&P 500 and gold both hitting all-time highs and Bitcoin inching towards $118,000. Despite this, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research and Portfolio Manager at VanEck, believes that there is still room for growth in the market.
According to Sigel, there is no sign of overheating in Bitcoin. He mentioned in a recent discussion on crypto market conditions that the market has not shown signs of euphoria that usually indicate market peaks. One of the key indicators his team monitors is the cost of leveraged positions in Bitcoin futures markets, which currently remains at moderate levels, unlike during market tops when funding rates are in the double digits.
Another indicator Sigel highlighted is the unrealized profits on the Bitcoin blockchain. When most holders have significant paper gains, it typically weakens forward returns. However, Sigel noted that this is not the case currently, suggesting that Bitcoin’s rally is not overextended.
Sigel also discussed the performance of Bitcoin miners in 2025, noting that many mining stocks have seen substantial gains this year, partly due to their side business of renting out power and infrastructure to AI computing. He cautioned that the sharp gains could make miners susceptible to a pullback, especially given the overlap between AI-linked equities and major stock indices.
Looking ahead to the next few months, Sigel emphasized the importance of monitoring market sentiment within Bitcoin. He mentioned that market sentiment is not showing extreme levels of greed, and U.S. equities, particularly large tech companies, still appear fundamentally strong with high profit margins and robust balance sheets.
When asked about the possibility of the crypto rally peaking this year or extending into 2026, Sigel pointed to the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle as still relevant. He also highlighted U.S. political dynamics, such as midterm elections and regulatory uncertainty, as potential factors influencing investor confidence.
In conclusion, Sigel remains optimistic about the upside potential for Bitcoin as long as key indicators remain stable. While certain sectors of the market may be running hot, Bitcoin itself has not shown signs of peaking. As we head into the final months of 2025, Sigel’s outlook remains positive for the market.