Bitcoin has once again slipped back into bear mode, trading near $109,000, and the infamous “September curse” seems to be haunting the crypto market. With nearly $1.7 billion in long positions wiped out, the confidence of retail traders has been shaken to its core.
However, according to analyst CRYPTOBIRB, the bigger picture may not be about September at all. Instead, Q4 could be where Bitcoin sets up for its next big breakout.
Why September Feels Like a Curse
Historically, September has never been kind to Bitcoin. Data from CoinGlass shows that, on average, this month has delivered 6% losses for the crypto market. Many had hoped that 2025 would break this trend, but early gains have already been erased.
What began as one of the most promising Septembers in years has now turned flat, wiping away nearly all earlier gains.
It’s not just retail traders selling; institutions are also pulling back. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw four straight days of outflows, losing $1.13 billion this week, while Ethereum ETFs faced $795.8 million in outflows.
This suggests that money may be shifting back into Bitcoin. For larger players, fear in the market isn’t a reason to run – it’s a reason to buy.
Bear Setup, Breakout Coming
Despite the panic, CRYPTOBIRB believes that the outlook may not be as bleak as it seems. On higher timeframes, Bitcoin is still holding strong. However, on the charts, the picture is shaky. As BTC has slipped below its 200-day trend line at $112,400, $104,000 stands out as the next key support level.
Even the momentum is fading, with the RSI at 38 showing weakness. Bitcoin is currently stuck between $108K and $115K, hinting at a big breakout on the horizon.
The “Fear & Greed Index” has dropped to 33, signaling “fear,” and retail traders are in a state of panic. Ironically, this same fear might be the fuel that ignites Bitcoin’s next major move.
Q4: Bitcoin’s Strongest Season
Despite September’s slump, CRYPTOBIRB expects Q4 to be bullish. Key drivers include potential Fed rate cuts, dollar weakness boosting risk assets, and a supply-demand imbalance, with projected institutional demand of $3 trillion against only $77 billion worth of new BTC issued annually.
History also favors the bulls. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged an 85% return in Q4, with November alone bringing an average gain of 46% and October around 21%.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $109,590, slightly higher in the past 24 hours. All eyes are now on Q4 for the next big move in the crypto market.
FAQs
What is the “September curse” for Bitcoin?
Historically, September brings average losses of 6% for Bitcoin. This pattern of a market slump has repeated again in 2025, erasing early gains.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin during the fear?
Market fear can signal a buying opportunity for long-term investors. The “Fear & Greed Index” is low, which has historically preceded major bullish breakouts.
What is the price prediction for Bitcoin in Q4 2025?
Analysts are bullish for Q4, citing historical trends where Bitcoin averages an 85% gain. Key drivers include potential Fed rate cuts and high institutional demand.
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