Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone has raised concerns about Bitcoin (BTC) encountering significant resistance at the crucial $100,000 level. According to McGlone, shifting macroeconomic conditions and the Federal Reserve’s indication that rate cuts in 2025 may be less than previously anticipated could hinder Bitcoin from establishing support above $100,000 in the near future.
In a recent tweet, McGlone shared his perspective on the matter, stating, “Can Bitcoin breach $100,000? Model headwinds rising: Bitcoin peaked at $108,000 on December 17th, the day before the Federal Reserve eased, and our model might help determine what to look for in 2025. My bias is that $100,000 is formidable resistance, and the model shows top forces for Bitcoin’s almost 15% drawdown have been changing monetary policy expectations and crypto-specific factors.”
McGlone also pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the performance of the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently elevated, suggesting increased price volatility. However, he mentioned that if Bitcoin manages to sustain its position above $100,000, it could indicate that the leading cryptocurrency is evolving into more of a store of value akin to gold, rather than a high-risk tech stock.
The senior macro strategist further highlighted the importance of Bitcoin staying above the $100,000 threshold in 2025 to demonstrate stability as a risk asset. He emphasized that factors such as the introduction of US exchange-traded funds, the Bitcoin halving event, a record-setting stock market, and the re-election of former US President Donald Trump may have contributed to the peak performance of speculative digital assets.
Moreover, McGlone cautioned that gold’s market strength against the S&P 500 could signal potential declines in both stocks and Bitcoin if BTC’s strong correlation with the stock index persists. He questioned whether the launch of US ETFs and Trump’s reelection altered the trajectory and correlation of highly speculative digital assets.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $99,790, reflecting a 1.1% increase in the last 24 hours. Investors and analysts will be closely monitoring the cryptocurrency’s performance in the coming days to see if it can overcome the resistance at $100,000 and potentially establish itself as a more stable store of value in the digital asset space.