Dogecoin has experienced a surge in investor activity, with active addresses reaching over 650,000 — the highest level since November 2024. This uptick in engagement reflects a strong interest from retail investors, although the timing of the spike around the $0.41 mark suggests that it may have been influenced by speculative buying towards the end of the cycle.
On-chain metrics indicate that the transacted coin acquisition cost and realized profits are approaching levels seen back in February, hinting at a potential distribution phase. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has returned to the “Optimism” zone, indicating that the majority of DOGE holders are currently in profit. While this signals increased confidence, it also raises concerns about potential selling pressure if resistance levels are not convincingly breached.
Despite daily trading volume exceeding $5 billion during the recent price surge, Dogecoin’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) remains below $5 million. This disparity between price action and network utility suggests that the rally was largely driven by sentiment and speculation rather than actual growth in usage.
In terms of price action, DOGE is currently consolidating around $0.225 after facing rejection at $0.245. While the broader trend remains intact with price holding above key EMAs, there are early signs of weakening momentum. The MACD line is pointing downwards and may flip, while the RSI has dropped to 62, indicating a neutral sentiment following previous overbought levels.
If Dogecoin fails to reclaim $0.245, it may remain range-bound or revisit support levels near $0.220. A breakdown below this level could open the door to downside targets at $0.198 or even $0.145. Conversely, a breakout above $0.245 with strong volume could pave the way for a move towards $0.268 or $0.30.
Overall, Dogecoin is currently at a critical juncture, balancing between hype and structural support. While on-chain activity and rising profits point to strong retail interest, the lack of fundamental utility and declining volume suggest a speculative rally. Traders should monitor price action closely for a clear breakout or breakdown before committing to a direction.