Prediction market data on the price of Bitcoin in 2025 is indicating some bullish sentiment, with traders wagering millions on the digital asset surpassing $120,000 by the end of the year. On the decentralized platform Polymarket, a market asking about Bitcoin’s price in 2025 has attracted over $15.5 million in volume, with traders assigning a 75% probability to Bitcoin exceeding $120,000.
The platform also shows a 55% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $130,000 and a 33% chance of it breaking the $150,000 mark. Even more ambitious targets, such as $200,000, are given a 13% probability. In a separate market focused on the immediate term, traders are more conservative, with a 58% probability for Bitcoin to be above $115,000 by August 1, 2025, and only a 30% chance of it crossing $120,000 in the same period.
This activity on Polymarket comes amidst significant growth for the platform itself. Data from Dune Analytics shows that the platform’s user base and volume expanded during the 2024 U.S. election, reaching a peak of $2.6 billion in monthly volume in November 2024. The platform has since established a new baseline of activity, with last month’s trading volume standing at $1.16 billion, over nine times higher than the volume recorded in June the previous year.
The number of active traders on Polymarket has also increased significantly, with 241,000 active traders last month, more than seven times higher than the previous year. However, since a peak in January 2025, the number of active traders has declined by 47%, indicating a shift in platform activity towards a smaller group of more heavily capitalized or higher-conviction traders.
Despite the fluctuations in user activity, platform volume has rebounded, growing 30% from April to June 2025. The average volume per trader has also increased, suggesting that existing users are trading in larger sizes. Polymarket’s recent partnership with X further solidifies its growth in the prediction market space.
While prediction markets offer a unique form of sentiment analysis, it’s important to remember that their forecasts reflect current beliefs and not certain outcomes. The regulatory environment for prediction markets also remains complex in various jurisdictions, posing risks for manipulation and regulatory scrutiny.
Overall, the substantial volume and clear directional probability on Polymarket provide a data-driven perspective on where active traders expect Bitcoin’s price to trend in 2025. As of the current press time price of $109,093, traders are showing optimism for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.